With a bit of time on hand this weekend, I went though the annual reports of Capitaland Retail China Trust (CRCT) for the last few years to collect the yield data. Below is a plot of CRCT historical dividend yield. As you can see, the “trading range” of CRCT’s yield has been very consistent over the years. Too consistent in my view.
The highest dividend yield for any particular year is about 7.6% while the lowest yield is about 6.0%. If you believe what this graph is showing you, then you can predict the price range of CRCT by back-calculating it using the current DPU or predicted DPU.
Say we use the DPU 2018, i.e 10.22 cents and the current share prgice of $1.53, CRCT’s current yield is about 6.7%, approximately the middle of the dividend range.
So theoretically, it can go either way :-), either the share price increases to $1.69 or decreases to $1.35 in the course of this year.
For those who are satisfied with the current yield of 6.68% and can stomach a potential share price drop of 18 cents from last Friday price, then you can consider accumulating it now 🙂
As for me, I would like to have a greater safety margin especially since I am already vested in CRCT. I will wait for further weakness in its share price before accumulating. Everyone has different appetite. By my own yardstick, I think anything below $1.45 will be good enough. So, I will hold on to my war chest first.
Have a great investment week.